Probability analysis on stability of arch dam abutment
Chen Zu-ping · Journal of Hydraulic Engineering · 2008
The substructure method is applied to study the interaction between arch dam and its abutment and the stochastic mechanical parameters of the fault belt are estimated by means of Bayes method.The distribution of parameters is regarded as a spatial stochastic field and the localized variables are introduced to reflect the spatial stochastic characteristic and correlations among the parameters.The parameters of every element are obtained from sample data by using Kringing formula.Geological condition is used to judge the sliding plane.The cracking trajectory is utilized to help searching the sliding plane which can not be judged by geological condition.This method can sufficiently consider all uncertainties and all correlations of fracture mode and apply the reliability theory to estimate the stability of abutment.The example of application of this method shows that the calculation is simple and the result is reliable.