FUZZY FAULT TREE ANALYSIS METHOD ON SUBMARINE PIPELINES FAULT BY THE THIRD-PARTY DAMAGE
Jianping Zhao · Tianranqi gongye · 2008
Since working condition of submarine pipelines is awfully and it has bigger risk in operation and higher fault rate compared with pipelines on the land, it is of importance to study submarine pipeline fault. So, the third-party fault tree is established for Hangzhou Bay submarine pipeline by means of fault tree to analyze factors leading Hangzhou Bay submarine pipeline fault by the third-party damage. 16 minimum cut sets leading to pipeline fault can be gotten through qualitative analyses on this fault tree, the happening probability of the top event can be calculated and the importance of the basic events can be analyzed through quantitative analysis. The expert inquiry method combined with fuzzy sets theory is adopted to assess the happening probability of the basic events. The calculating of bad effect of self-buried, one of the ground events of the third-party damage of Hangzhou Bay submarine pipeline, is given as an example of this method whose result shows that the fuzzy failure rate is 3.3485×10-3.