Application of ARIMA model on prediction of hepatitis B incidence
Feng Shu-xiu · Zhongguo xiandai yixue/Zhongguo xiandai yixue zazhi · 2012
【Objective】To explore the method of utilizing fit time series with ARIMA model to predict the hepatitis B,so as to provide decision making basis for the early warning system of infectious diseases.【Method】Incidence of hepatitis B was collected monthly from 2004 to 2010 and a model(ARIMA) was fit with SPSS software.The constructed model was performed to predict the monthly incidence in 2011.【Results】The model ARIMA(0,1,1)(0,1,1)12 was established finally and the residual sequence was a white noise sequence.The relative error in average was 0.133 between the forecasting value and the real value.【Conclusions】It is necessary and practical to apply the ARIMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B within a short lead time.