Seismic Disaster Risk Evaluation for Power Systems Considering Common Cause Failure
Jianbo Guo · Proceedings of the CSEE · 2012
Network’s risk-assessment model and method are crucial for improving power system’s safety under seismic disaster.The research in this field in China is still not perfect.Characteristics of seismic disaster were analyzed,and analysis method and theoretical framework of seismic disaster risk evaluation for power systems considering common cause failure were proposed.Element damage probability model was established based on ground shaking prediction method.Considering the influence of network structure and operation conditions,seismic disaster risk-evaluation algorithm and risk indices for power systems were proposed.Entropy weight was applied to evaluate the effects of indices on nodes’ anti-disaster ability and nodes’ comprehensive disaster-risk indices were calculated.The calculation examples of actual power systems show that the proposed algorithm is feasible and it can find system’s weak links,and this helps to improve the power grid’s anti-seismic performance.