FORECAST RESEARCH ON HEPATITIS B IN ARMY BY RANDOMLY TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
Shenlong Li · Xiandai yufang yixue · 2008
[Objective]To explore the method of utilizing fit time series with ARMA model to predict the Hepatitis B in arm,so as to provide decision making basis for the early warning system of infectious diseases.[Methods]SPSS software was performed to construct the ARMA model based on monthly incidence of hepatitis B from 1996 to 2005 of all the army. The constructed model was performed to predict the monthly incidence in 2006. Then the predictive incidence was compared with actual incidence.[Results]ARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 exactly fitted the incidence of the previous time series,and the monthly incidence predicted by the model in 2006 was consistent with the change tendency of actual incidence.[Conclusion]It is necessary and practical to apply the method of ARMA model in fitting time series to predict hepatitis B within a short period,which has significance in predicting the infectious disease.