A Linear stable forecasting model of time series for monthly, seasonal and yearly precipitation forecasting of station
Lei Wang · Gansu Meteorology · 1998
By using maximum entropy method the precipitation forecasting model of linear stationary time series wasconstructed.In order to make the results stably,the roots of thecharacteristic polynomial,whose modes are more than l,areprojected to the unit ciit circle to modify the coefficients.On tye base of Lanzhou monthly average precipitation data in the range of 1944 to 1997,the monthly preciptation forecasting tests were made from 1986 to 1997.The orders of autoregresion model are chosen as 15,is the best. This model is objective and quantitative and is suitable for the monthly,seasonal or yearly precipitaton forecasting of any station.