Risk analysis of failure damage to marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree
Liu Huixun · Ziran zaihai xuebao · 2012
Due to incompletion information and lack of accurate data of occurrence probability about the failure damage to the marine riser,the risk analysis of the failure damage to the marine riser based on fuzzy fault tree was proposed herein.Through the statistical analysis of the causes of marine riser failures,fault tree using failure damage to the marine riser as the top event was built.Based on the qualitative analysis,105 minimum cut sets were obtained and the failure mode was ascertained.Based on experts' estimation with the fuzzy set theory,quantitative analysis of the fault tree was given,the probability of the base events was assessed and the probability of the top event was calculated.Through these analyses,the weak links of the marine riser system could be found,and thus effective measures can be taken to decrease the probability of accident occurrence and increase the reliability of the system.