Study on Risk Quantitative Assessment Model for Civil Aviation Safety
Yuan Zhang · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2007
Based on the analyses of status quo of civil aviation risk assessment and commonly used quantitative risk assessment methods,quantitative assessment model for civil aviation safety risk is put forward.When calculating the current probability of risk in this model,both the probability of risk in history and the change of those factors influencing the probability of risk in history are taken into account,therefore,the current risk probability is obtained by modifying the one in history.Moreover,the concept of exponential weight is put forward for the first time.When calculating the consequence of risk,the direct loss and indirect loss are not only taken into account,but also the different possible results of risk as well.So the consequence of risk is actually the expectation of different possible results of risk.Based on the above probability and consequence,the quantitative risk assessment for civil aviation safety is achieved.At last,an example is illustrated;the result shows that the model could be widely used in practice.