Dynamics characteristic of sandpiles model and prediction of disaster phylogenetic evolution
HE Yue-lei, Yao Ling-kan, SU Feng-huan, Shixiong Li · Ziran zaihai xuebao · 2005
Some disaster systems are in a state between cycle region and chaos region.Their predictability and prediction technique are researched based on self-organized critical theory.It is found that sandpiles model could show two kinds of dynamics behavior by contrast experiments of uniform and non-uniform sand-gravels.One is self-organized critical and the other is quasi-cyclic.Evolvement of two systems were analyzed by some techniques such as the time series analysis,the spectrum analysis and the R/S analysis.And some predictability characteristics of two systems were showed such as long range correlation.Both disaster systems are predictable.The research routes and techniques of disaster prediction were put forward too.Finally as an example,the application of extreme statistics to disaster prediction was introduced.