Hydrological forecasting preferred and combination based on multi-attribute group decision
Jianxun Li, Bing Q. Shen · Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice · 2010
According to the problem of low accuracy in hydrological forecasting with the condition of parameters constrained,a hydrological forecasting preferred and combination method was put forward based on multi-attribute group decision.Firstly,the paper built four decision attributes forecasting correct rate,certainty coefficient,qualified interval,occurrence possibility,then gave the attribute weights in accordance with an ideal model,and assembled attribute values by using OWG and OWGA operator, finally constructed the forecasting interval which close to measured data based on evaluation sequence. The results show that:This method can effectively select forecasting values with smaller relative error from multiple forecasting models,and combine to a hydrological forecasting model with higher forecasting accuracy,improve the level of forecasting value.