Periodical Fluctuation are Found in Fire and Its Application
WU Lu-rong · Shuxue de shijian yu renshi · 2009
Based on statistics of fire in China in the past years,the characteristics of developing trend and periodical fluctuation are found in fire regularity in China. According to the statistics of fire in China from 2000 to 2006,the combining forecasting model(1) about fire occurrence number in a 24-hour which come from trend grey forecasting multiply by periodic fluctuation index,and the combining forecasting model(2) which come from conic trend line superimpose Fourier Series are established with MATLAB,only to find the average relative error between predicted and observed value is less than 0.09.The result can provide scientific guidance for fire study and fire department as well.