Comprehensive Assessment on Population Development Degree of ModernizationBased on Normal Cloud Model and Entropy Weight
Zhang Ji-guo · Chinese Journal of Population Resources and Environment · 2012
In order to monitor and evaluate the population development degree of modernization and realize the coordinated development of population,economy and environment,the development of population evaluation model based on the normal cloud model and entropy theory was presented to solve the fuzzy and random problem in the development process of population.Using existing theoretical approaches,a total of five assessment indexes were considered,such as gross population,population composition,etc.The entropy weight method was used to compute the evaluation factors' weights,and the normal cloud model was used to describe the grade of development of population under single index.The cloud model is a mathematical representation of fuzziness and randomness,it can realize the transformation between the qualitative when the fuzziness and randomness are integrated together,it has strong robustness for the uncertain question.The method keeps the random and fuzzy in evaluation.Finally,a case study using the method was implemented in the time series data about population development index of China in the past 10 years(2000-2009) and the cross-section data in 2009 to appraise population integrated development condition of the whole nation and of the four municipalities.Compared with the fuzzy evaluation method,the model achieves the right evaluation result.