Divided-period chaotic forecasting model of hourly water consumption for optimal operation
Tuqiao Zhang · Journal of Zhejiang University(Engineering Science) · 2005
In allusion to the difficulties existing in classical methods for forecasting operational demand, a divided-period chaotic forecasting model of hourly water consumption 24()h in advance was developed based on the theory of phase space reconstruction. The chaotic analysis shows that the maximum predictable time scale of divided-period water consumption time series is much larger than that of continuous time series, the hourly water consumption series discussed were the series of 24()h intervals but not that of the usual one-hour interval. Testing by examples shows that the prediction results are stable and the prediction (errors) are small(average absolute value of relative error less than 2% and the maximum absolute value of relative error less than 5%), which can satisfy the demands of optimal operation of water distribution (system.)