Time series analysis by ARIMA interfering model to forecast amount of outpatient
Zou Yin · Chinese Journal of Hospital Statistics · 2008
Objective Analyzing the changing trend of monthly amount of outpatient and exploring the forecasting method of amount of outpatient.Methods By sampling monthly amount of outpatient from Jan.2000 to May 2007,the trend of the time series was analyzed and forecast by interfering and non-interfering method of ARIMA model.Results These were seasonal pattern and increasing trend in the change of monthly amount of outpatient.The result showed the forecasting value of interfering method of ARIMA model was closer than that of non-interfering method.Conclusion The changing trend of monthly amount of outpatient was complicated and involved lots of influencing factors.Applying the time series analysis by ARIMA interfering model to forecast monthly amount of outpatient had preferable forecasting effect,which could provide information for nosocomial decision-making.