ARIMA Analysis of Corps Casualty Rate in Southwest Boundary Operations
Chao Qin · Yunchou yu guanli · 2003
To explore statistical distribution of operational daily casualty rate,set up a model,and then provide a basis for further simulation study,empirical data have been obtained from one corps in Southwest boundary operations,the daily incidence of casualties has been computed.KolmogorovSmirnov tests is applied in analyzing the goodness of fit.A time series model is set up with BoxJenkins method.The statistical distribution of corps daily casualty rate best fits lognormal distribution.The appropriate statistical model is ARIMA(0,1,1).