Medium and Long-term Runoff Combinational Forecast Based on Support Vector Machine
LI Ji-we · Water Resources and Power · 2013
Medium and long-term runoff forecast is a key step to make full use of water resources and realize the hydropower station optimal operation.Taking Longpan station for an example,located on the middle reaches of Jinshajiang River,autoregressive moving average model,nearest neighbor bootstrapping regression model and BP neural network are selected to establish monthly runoff forecast model.The analysis shows that there are certain complementarities between three kinds of model.So,monthly combinational forecast model based support vector machine(SVM)is established.Compared with single forecast model,the results show that combined forecasting model has higher accuracy and stability,which provides technical support for discovering runoff forecast rules and formulating medium and long-term dispatch plan of hydropower station.