Application of Time-series Analysis to Predict Rubber Production in Danzhou
SU Wendi · Chinese Journal of Tropical Agriculture · 2011
Time series method was used to analyze the dry rubber production in Danzhou,Hainan from 1980 to 2003,based on which a prediction model for dry rubber production in Danzhou was made and verified.And the model was used to predict the dry rubber production from 2004 to 2010.The result showed that the model displayed the basic pattern of rubber production in Danzhou,however,with the passage of time,plus the effect of other mixed factors,the accuracy of the prediction decreased.Therefore,in order to assure the best prediction result,new statistical data have to be collected and new model has to be made.This prediction method provides a scientific management foundation for rubber production,and provides reference information for rubber industry in decision-making aspect.