Solving the Paradox of Centipede Game: A New Model of Grey Structured Algorithm of Forwards Induction
Zhengdong Xu · Zhongguo guanli kexue · 2008
The main contacts of dynamic game analysis theories are sub-game perfect Nash equilibrium analysis,whose key method is backwards induction.Since a long time,it is so confused for academia that the backwards induction is definitely unsuitable with the fact.This paper reveals the origin of backwards induction: first of all,the micro logic is wrong for overall macro logic neglect.In other words,someone focuses on recent interest rather than long interest.Secondly classic multi-stage model of the dynamic game structure cannot fit for the people to consider and balancedly analyze the overall and long interest.This paper constructs a modern structure based on the future dynamic game model and designs the backstepping grey structured algorithm of dynamic multi-stage game,constructs the termination and guide of the multi-stage dynamic game and offers the convenient and efficient balanced analysis and further explains the paradox of Centipede game.