Study on decision-making method for complex crisis
Wang Gang-qia · Systems Engineering - Theory & Practice · 2015
Based on comparison between classical decision-making issues and crisis decision-making issues,specified constrain conditions of crisis decision-making are analyzed,which behaves more like a complex system.In this paper,a decision-making method for complex crisis is developed,which consists of three principles,a cross-simulation model,and a decision-making model based on cross-simulation.The three principles include the dynamic anchoring principle,the effective non-optimal principle,and the bottom line principle.The three principles aim at three major difficulties of crisis decision-making,which are no-fixed objective,lack of evaluation method,and hard to adjust.The cross-simulation model contributes to accuracy and reliability of simulation with integration of data and models.The decision-making model based on cross-simulation provides effective decision support for complex crisis.The method developed in this paper may be applied to more complex issues not limited to crisis.