Secretary Problem Study Based on Bounded Rationality Hypothesis
Kanliang Wang · Journal of Management Sciences · 2007
The Secretary Problem(SP) is a class decision task of sequential observation and selection in which describes the dynamic decision process with searching information stage by stage,and the essential decision is when to stop searching additional information but not which alternative to be chosen.The maximal alternative as benchmark is the chief characteristic of many established cutoff rule and optimal policy,and the rule would ensure the most probability to win but not take into account the decision-maker′s bounded rationality and heuristic bias.Therefore,the paper proposes the mean benchmark and sub-maximum benchmark of cutoff rule,then tests and compares their effectiveness by computer simulation and theory solution.The results show that the proposed rule is better than the established rule on decision-making optimization degree where there is a U-curve change with benchmark movement,and that the probability of decision-maker to win becomes linear decrease with benchmark sinking down.