An Improved Winters Model for Airline Demand Forecast
Luo Li · Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology · 2006
Improves the precision of the segment demand forecast is the important research topic in aviation revenue management system.Used the EM algorithm~([2]) to restore the historical demand which had constrained by resource,then obtain the more precise demand data.The tickets of the scheduled flight can book advance,so centralized the segment's historical booking data into a booking matrix for using more known information and decrease the amount of the data to forecast.Then used the Winters model to forecast the segment demand.Calculated the data within the segment from Chengdu to Gangzhou,the average error of the experimental results is 4.9 percents,and the average error of the Winters model is 21.7 percents,and the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed method has been illustrated by the experiment.