Pre Warning Assessment of Emergencies in Universities Based on Delphi-AHP And Weighted Set Valued Statistics
Qiu Wan-hua · Yunchou yu guanli · 2013
It is very important to scientifically prevent the emergencies in colleges and universities for maintaining the stability of the society.To establish and perfect the pre-warning mechanism and promote the ability of emergency management,a new method is developed in this paper to deal with the complexity of the pre-warning assessment for the emergencies in universities.We first establish the index system for the pre-warning assessment with the Delphi method,and then weigh these indexes by combination of Delphi and AHP methods.In an assessment phase,the weighted set-valued statistics(WSVS)is employed rather than the commonly used point estimation method,which is believed to bring inaccuracy.An application of our method for assessing the risk of a dormitory fire emergency is also shown in our paper.It is proved that the model is feasible and valid in setting the pre-warning level and releasing pre-warning signals.