Application of Quantification Theory in Predicting Occurrence Probability of Soybean Pod Borer
Kuijun Zhao · Dadou kexue · 2012
Damage degree of soybean pod borer(Percentage of Damaged Seeds)is influenced by quantitative factors(over-winter cardinal number,meteorological condition etc.)and qualitative factors(variety,control measures etc.).According to eleven factors related to damage degree,such as average shelling percentage of last year,soybean varieties,control situation,survival rate of overwintering larvae and so on,this paper built model by taking percentage of damaged seeds as reference variables,and then predicted occurrence probability of various damage degree on soybean pod borer by using quantification theory I.In the return analysis of level-3 model for 73 samples,63 samples were right and the return rate was 86.30%.Eight samples,accounting for 10.96% of the total behaved grade 1 forecast error.Results suggest the prediction model has practical significance for its higher precision of return analysis.