Grey Prediction Model for Road Traffic Accident and Its Application Research
Hongguo Xu · Journal of Changchun University of Science and Technology · 2006
Road traffic system is a dynamic uncertain system,so the occurrence of the traffic accidents has the randomicity.Aiming at the characteristic that the partial of road traffic system is known,but other partial is unkown,grey system theories are adopted to do mainly research on the uncertain problems of sample,poor information and the stochastic objects of explicit extension,inexplicit connotation,to build the mathematical models with a small quantity of data.The forecast model and its accuracy test for the traffic accidents are carried out in this paper by which effect of grey generator operator weakens data randomicity to excavate data's latent rules,and interchange of grey difference equation and grey differential equation realize the process in which continuous dynamic differential equation is built with the disperse data sequence.An application example of the method provided here demonstrates that the method can more reasonably and accurately forecast development condition of the traffic accidents.