Research on fuzzy Markov chain model with weights and its application in predicting the precipitation state
Sun Cai · Journal of systems engineering · 2003
The prediction of future precipitation is a very difficult problem of meteorologic science, this paper firstly applied fuzzy sequential cluster method to set up the classification standard of precipitation state based on the fact that there are much uncertainty and imprecise characteristics in the precipitation course; then this paper presented a method which is called fuzzy Markov chain with weights to predicted the future precipitation state by regarding the standardized selfcoefficients as weights based on the special characteristics of precipitation being a dependent stochastic variable; on this base, a concrete precipitation was obtained by using the level characteristics value of fuzzy sets; and applied this method to a real hydrological observation station(Hequ) with nearly 50 years precipitation information in Shanxi Province at last, an ideal result was obtained, hence a practicable method for predicting future precipitation was put forward.