Rating Crop Area Yield Insurance at County Level
Fang Lingli · Ecological Economy · 2009
With rice yield data at county level of Jingzhou City Hubei Province from 1991 to 2007, the article models rice yield per hectare in past years and gets its prediction of year 2008 and 20,000 MCMC values by Hierarchical Bayesian Model and WinBUGS software, according to which it rates rice yield insurance in each county. It is found that Hierarchical Bayesian model is good at predicting the temporal trend and that the result of rating rice yield insurance premium is of great reference.