Analyzing Several Evaluation Methods for Mission Reliability of Missile Warhead
Tongmin Jiang · Chinese Journal of Explosives and Propellants · 2006
In order to evaluate the reliability of the missile warhead whose configuration is subject to change,two evaluation methods based on AMSAA model and Gompertz model respectively,which are suitable for the success or failure product,are presented.These evaluation methods are applied to estimate the reliability of a warhead by adopting source data which is collected from its development phase,and the reliability values obtaining from two model evaluation methods are compared with the ones obtaining from the traditional evaluation methods.It is found that the lower limit value of confidence obtaining from the binomial distribution evaluation method is less than the one obtaining from the hyper-geometric distribution evaluation method,and these two lower limits is less than the one obtaining from the AMSAA model evaluation method,and the point evaluation value obtaining from the traditional evaluation method is less than the one obtaining from the Gompertz model evaluation method.The reason for obtaining different values from the different evaluation methods using the same test data is analyzed.The conclusion is that the values of reliability obtaining from the AMSAA model method and Gompertz model method are more credible,because the changing of reliability has been taken into account in both methods.