The Optimal Combination Forecast Method and Its Application in the Short-term Traffic Flow Prediction
Junfen Li · Journal of Shandong University of Science and Technology · 2009
The accuracy of traffic flow prediction results directly affects the traffic control and management and therefore,the short-term traffic flow prediction is the key technology for the advanced traffic management information system.On the basis of briefly introducing the optimal combination forecast model,the weight coefficient of the optimal combination forecast model is determined by the criterion of the minimum square sum of the forecasting error.It realizes that the traffic flow prediction model is optimal combination.The precision of the optimal combination forecast model is compared and analyzed with the other prediction models,such as time series model,linear regression model,Kalman filtering model and artificial neural network by using the real data.It proves that the optimal combination forecast model of traffic flow is effective and practical.