Research about Spatial-Temporal Forecasting of Crime Hotspots
Zhanhui Sun · Jisuanji fangzhen · 2011
The statistic analysis shows that the crime of robbery,snatching and burglary has the features of distributing by time and space,and then forms the hotspots.The traditional spatial-temporal forecasting of crime is a description predicting method based on the theory of statistic,so it is not possible to reflect the mechanism of hotspots' formation,and could not make forecasting well.The Routine Activity Theory points out that crime happens when three agents who are offenders,victims and police make convergence on space and time.Therefore,under some certain circumstance,the hotspots of crime could be modeled with the agents.A spatial and temporal forecasting model which has the mechanism of feedback was given out.This model can reflect the characters of crime variation by space and time in nature,and then it could make prediction of hotspots of crime.