Toward a new kind of natural disaster risk zoning map
Zong Tian · Ziran zaihai xuebao · 2004
Due to the complexity of natural disaster systems and the incompleteness of data, it is impossible to accurately estimate the probability of any natural disaster occurring. Imprecision of probability estimation is the fatal disadvantage of current risk maps based on the exceedance-probability. This paper briefly reviews the related researches on how to improve the imprecision of risk estimate and how to calculate fuzzy risks, leads the research on fuzzy risk into the field of risk zoning map, and suggests the definition of soft risk zoning map and a preliminary map mode. This paper discusses the advantages of soft risk zoning map. For example,the map is capable of representing the imprecision of risk values, providing more risk information for map-users and providing regulation options for policy-makers. The result of this research indicates that the soft risk zoning map is a potential direction of natural disaster risk zoning map. This paper gives some proposals to promote the future research.