The application of ARIMA model in the rabies surveillance
Zhang Heng-qi · Chinese Preventive Medicine · 2011
Objective To explore the application of autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model in rabies surveillance,and to provide scientific basis for prevention and control of hydrophobia.Methods The data of rabies surveillance during the period of 2007-2009 were collected through planned immunization sites from every medical institution of western region in Zhuhai city to conduct statistical analysis with ARIMA model.Results The ARIMA(0,0,0)(1,1,0)12 could be used as a good model fitting for the rabies exposure curve in the western region of Zhuhai city.According to forecast results,it showed an upward trend of the rabies exposure from May 2010.Conclusion Autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA) model could be applied to predict the population exposed to rabies,and the parameters of this model should be modified with the increased amount of data.