Application of Markov chain to forecasting plum rain period of Taihu Lake Basin
Zongguo Zhang · Journal of Hohai University · 2006
According to the data of beginning and ending of the plum rain period and the main periods of plum rains from 1954 to 1991,the Markov chain was applied to forecasting the plum rain period of 1992 and 1993 for the Taihu Lake Basin,and the probability of the plum rain period in different states was analyzed based on its stability distribution.The analysis shows that,with long and accurate historical data series,the present model can give satisfactory plum rain period forcasting for the Taihu Lake Basin under the stable climate condition.However,as a probability forecasting model,the accuracy and reliability of the present model should be verified through a great amount of data forecasting and testing.