The GM (1,1) Prediction Model of Pesticide Degradation Optimized by IEA
Yang Ying-chun · Nongye huanjing kexue xuebao · 2007
The IEA-GM (1,1) prediction model of the pesticide degradation was established according to immune evolutionary algrorithm (IEA) and gray system theory. And the degradation of residual quinalfhosion in cowpea, the degradation of residual mancozeb in lycopersicon esculentum miller, the degradation dynamics of triadimefon in ear of wheat and the dynamic dispelling of pirimicarb residue in cucumber fruit were predicted based on the IEA-GM (1,1) prediction model. The results showed that the IEA-GM (1,1) prediction model exhibited a higher accuracy with a higher correlation coefficent (R2) and a lower residual sum of square (S2) than other models in the corresponding practical applications. According to IEA-GM(1,1) prediction model, the correlation coefficents (R2) of the degradation of residual quinalfhosion in cowpea, the degradation of residual mancozeb in lycopersicon esculentum miller, the degradation of triadimefon in ear of wheat and the pirimicarb residue in cucumber fruit were up to 0.999 9, 0.971 6, 0.996 3 and 0.996 3, respectively. Moreover, this model was not limited by the time interval, and it was proved to be simple, convenient and feasible in the calculation of pesticide degradation at any time. Therefore, it would provide a new theoretical way for the establishment of the pesticide residual model and the research of pesticide degradation in ecological environment.