Analysis of untrustworthiness of D-S evidence theory
Xia Pei-lun · Electronics Optics & Control · 2008
This paper analyzes D-S evidence theory and concludes that it is not trustworthy.Some serious problems found in applications of D-S evidence theory are shown,such as the often observed significant conflicts between D-S evidence combination result and human intuition,and the lack of robustness in D-S evidence combination results.To find out causes for these problems,a fatal flaw is revealed in D-S evidence theory,which leads not just to some application problems,but to the toppling of credibility of this theory.In Dempster's formula of evidence combination,and in the forming of belief interval with probability masses,the independence among the elements in the power set of the frame of discernment is breached.Comparison of D-S evidence theory and probability inference theory is also conducted and shows that some of the problems in D-S evidence theory can actually be solved easily and effectively under the framework of probability inference.