Study on risk factors of early death and establishment of a predictive mathematical model in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage
Huang Zi-ton · Chinese Journal of Critical Care Medicine · 2003
Objective To investigate the risk factors of early death in patients with subarachnoid hemorrhage(SAH)who died during hospitalization and establish a mathematical model to predict the status of early death.Methods 50 cases of SAH were divided into two groups according to the status of survival or death during hospitalization.They were studied by using retrospective analysis,control study,Logistic multiple regression and discriminant analysis.Results In screen,Logistic multiple regression showed that the severity of Hunt-Hess clinical classification and Fisher's CT classification?recurring hemorrhage were the risk factors of early death in patients with SAH during hospitalization.Fisher's linear discriminant function were set up by using these 3 factors .According to this mathematical model,the negative predictive value,positive predictive value and predictive accuracy of the status of death or survival were 94 3%,93 3%,94% respectively.Conclusion The severity of Hunt-Hess clinical classification and Fisher's CT classification, recurring hemorrhage were the lethal factors associated with early death of SAH during hospitalization.The mathematical model of discriminant function was simple,and could predict the status of early death accurately.It might have some value in clinical application