A new assessment method for reliability of prediction model with fuzzy mathematics
LI Hong-ying · 2004
The distribution of the authentic forecast results can embody the fiduciary level of the prediction model. The probability of the authentic forecast results obtained by the prediction model was defined as the fiduciary level of prediction model. A new method for assessment of the fiduciary level of prediction model was proposed. In order to assess the fiduciary level of the forecast results, a membership function for describing the relationship between the fiduciary level and absolute value of relative error of forecast results was established on the theory of fuzzy mathematics. By using the fuzzy mathematics and reliability theory, the formula to calculate the fiduciary level of the prediction model was provided. A prediction model for waxy oil viscosity was taken as an example to prove the applicability of the assessment method. The results show that the fiduciary levels of prediction model are different for the same oil sample with the different membership function or for the different oil sample with the same membership function.