Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis for Decision-making of Power Grid Expansion Planning
Sun Ke · Dianli xitong zidonghua · 2013
As more and more uncertainties have emerged in the decision-making of power grid expansion planning,it is necessary to develop new models to analyze the sensitivity of the decision-making results.A series of probabilistic sensitivity analysis models for decision-making of power grid expansion planning is proposed.Considering the uncertainty of criterion values,criterion weights and plan rankings,different models and calculating methods are developed.The impact of criterion values and weights on ranking sequence of candidate plans is quantitatively calculated using the Monte Carlo method.An actual case study is given to demonstrate the rationality and adaptability of the models proposed in coping with uncertain factors in different decision-making environments.