Study on Forecast of Incidents Resulting from Crew
Nan Li · Journal of Civil Aviation University of China · 2007
Based on the current statistical data in 1995-2004,the paper applies the secondary exponential smoothing method and the grey prediction to the prediction of the incidents resulting from the crew in 2002-2004 respectively and compares and analyzes the results of the two predictions with the real value.It is found that the secondary exponential smoothing method is much better in forecasting.This method is used to forecast the incidents in the next five years.The forecast results show that the trend of the incidents resulting from the crew is ascending.Taking into consideration the current circumstances in the civil aviation,the paper analyzes the cause of the trend and puts forward ways to control the trend.