Risk Assessment Method for Fire in Underground Space Based on Bayesian Network
MA De-zhon · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2013
In order to improve the accuracy of quantitative assessment of underground space fire risk,the,BN approach was introduced into fire risk assessment process. Firstly,an event tree model was built in accordance with typical fire scene and transformed into a BN model. Moreover,the consistency of two models was proved. Then,the network model was modified in order to consider the effects of uncertain factors. Finally,this modified model was used to calculate the probabilities of fire in different development stage. The loss of property was used to estimate the severity of fire,afterward the fire risk was calculated.The results from example analysis show that effect of uncertain factors is remarkable for risk assessment,and that compared with ETA,the novel method handles uncertainty better and is more suitable for assessing underground space fire risk.