Markov forecast model of system security trend and its application
Tao Lv · Journal of Safety Science and Technology · 2012
Based on Markov chain forecast theory,qualitative and quantitative forecast problem of system security situation were analyzed,and the system security situation forecast model was established.Qualitative forecast focused on the rising and falling trend of the security situation.While based on death rate persons/10 thousand,system security situation was divided into four security states to achieve quantitative forecast of system security state.Qualitative and quantitative forecast could get fine mutual verification and supplement.Qualitative forecast of Markov only could analyze the trend of system security situation,but could not show surely the scope of system security situation index.On the contrary,quantitative forecast could get the specific scope of system security situation index but could not get the case of the rising and falling trend of system security.If the two side could be combined,the result of forecasting would be tested each other,and the result would be more accurate.Case studies showed that the forecast model built by combination of qualitative and Markov quantitative forecast was not only simple in structure and easy to calculate,but also accorded with characteristic demand of the security situation forecast of system,which could be considered as an important reference in macro-management of system security.