Risks Inference on the Ground Deformation of Subway Tunnel Based on Cloud Model
WU Xian-gu · Journal of Civil Engineering and Management · 2013
Risks have the characteristics of vagueness and randomness in study of surface subsidence in subway shield construction. Cloud model theory can transfer natural language that indicates a qualitative concept into a quantitative representation,integrating dual nature and randomness of fuzzy problems. Based on the fault tree of surface settlement,this paper uses cloud model to process the relation of the range of distribution of risk factors which are divided into qualitative and quantitative by experts. Through the correction of cloud cohesion,it can be more objective and accurate to determine the probability values of basic events and the range of distribution of risk factors caused by the subway shield construction; Based on cloud model and confidence index,the transformation of qualitative linguistic value to quantitative numerical is realized. Using the sensitivity of fuzzy fault tree analysis,we can get fuzzy importance degree of each basic event of surface subsidence in subway shield construction,to develop targeted measures for controlling possible surface settlement before construction.