CHAOTIC TIME SERIES ANALYSIS TO LOAD PREDICTION
Yongchuan Zhang · 2001
Certain deterministic non-linear systems may show chaotic behavior. Time series derived from such systems seem stochastic, however, these chaotic ti me series can be predicted precisely in a short term, thus, by which a determini stic model can be constructed. To search chaos in load time series, the algorith m of several chaos indexes in time series is presented firstly. Based on the ris ing of chaos in generation load time series of Central China Power Grid, a local prediction model is established based on chaos theory. The advantage of this me thod is that the predicted error can be controlled by adjusting some parameters if user has a very long time series. Taking the generation load time series of C entral China Power Grid for example, the presented algorithm is checked and the predicted result is perfect.