Model to Forecast the Hydrological Time Series with Seasonality
Yuhe Li · Journal of Irrigation and Drainage · 2007
In view of the hydrological time series with obvious seasonality,the ratio-to-moving-average de-seasonality method was used and the smooth time series was obtained,and GM(1,1)differential equation as well as the self-memory model for predicting the hydrological system was established.The results show that the model to forecast the hydrological time series with seasonality can not only reflects the year by year general trend,but also predicts the characteristics of the seasonal fluctuation in year and the extremum.