Improved Grey Markov Model and Its Application in Prediction of Flight Accident Rate
Haojun Xu, Yuan Xue · Zhongguo anquan kexue xuebao · 2009
Based on grey modeling theory and Markov theory,traditional grey prediction model and grey Markov model are set up. Considering that there are some errors in the calculation of background value and original value of traditional grey Markov model,an improvement is conducted on the traditional model. Then,a comparison is made on the results of flight accident rate that are respectively predicated by the traditional model and the improved one. Simulation results show that the improved model has a higher precision than the traditional one in the prediction of flight accident rate. Finally,the algorithms of the improved model are verified.