Predicting Model of Rock Burst Based on Lyapunov Index
Jiang Jing-quan · Caikuang yu anquan gongcheng xuebao · 2006
The fitting predicting of rock burst is to predict changes of observation data during a certain future period.In traditional model of mathematic statistics,rock burst observation series are regarded as being caused by external random factors.Actually,it mostly is a seemingly random nonlinear chaotic series,and stochastic process theory is not suitable for prediction of rock burst time series.As a value ensuring index discrete extent to initial orbit of dynamical system and estimating chaotic extent of dynamical system,Lyapunov index is a very perfect predicting parameter in the system.Based on the phase space reconstruction of observation time series in workface of rock burst,a prediction model was proposed according to the maximal Lyapunov index,and the prediction results were compared with those from mathematic statistics model.By prediction analysis to mean series of daily observation data of electromagnetic emission and roof subsidence velocity series,the results show that the prediction model based on the maximal Lyapunov index has very high prediction precision and is feasible.