Linux at the Chasm
Don Rosenberg · 1999
Linux is moving through the Technology Adoption Cycle and gathering strength for a leap across the Chasm to Phase III, the Early Majority; a sign that Linux is already in Phase II is that large companies are implementing internal Linux projects. The Chasm must be crossed by a niche strategy, because Linux and the general user are not yet ready for each other. Hardware is one stage: Internet appliances, multi-processor servers, and embedded systems devices, will gain the OS more widespread use, but only when software applications begin to spread across companies in a niche, instead of being internal projects, will we see an application niche strategy begin to form and succeed. Software connected with POS systems is one likely candidate for this transition. Unfortunately, Linux cannot plan and marshal this Chasm crossing, nor can it manage public perception of itself. Furthermore, it will probably be 18-24 months before the software infrastructure (e.g., GUI tools for developers; file filters) is in place to support a widespread software movement. Likewise, support is not just setting up telephone help desks, but also providing enough integrators to help medium-sized businesses implement Linux as it passes through the niche stage; integrators and UNIX/Linux experts are scarcely overlapping groups. World Domination will take a while, and there is a danger that constant hyping of Linux by the media will create unrealistic expectations.