Trade Studies with Uncertain Information
David G. Ullman, Brian P. Spiegel · 2006
During every stage of the design process, designers trade off performance, cost, and risk in an evolutionary process whose goal is to find a satisfactory solution. This paper explores a recent method to manage the trade study process especially when uncertainty is pervasive and decisions are a mix of quantitative and qualitative information. We believe that it is possible to support a trade study process that is sensitive to the uncertainties in evolving system information, a key ingredient in managing risk, robustness, changes and spiral development. In this paper we explore what is needed to support such activities. To do so we follow an example as it gets increasingly complex and realistic. As the issues addressed increase in computational need, we make use of Accord, a decision support system base on Bayesian Team Support methods.