Decomposition and the control of errors in decision analytic models
Don N. Kleinmuntz · DSpace@MIT (Massachusetts Institute of Technology) · 2011
Decision analytic models rely upon the general principle of problem decomposition: Large and complex decision problems are reduced to a set of relatively simple judgments.The component judgments are then combined using mathematical rules derived from normative theory.This paper discusses the value of decomposition as a procedure for improving the consistency of deci- sion making.Various definitions of error and consistency are discussed.Linear decomposition models are argued to be particularly useful for the control of ran- dom response errors in the component judgments.Implications for decision analysis research and practice are considered, and decision makers' evaluations of the costs and benefits of decision analysis are discussed.