Next-Day Insolation Forecast Over Wide Area by Using Just-In-Time Modeling
Suzuki, T., Shinji Wakao, Takashi Oozeki · EU PVSEC · 2010
PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for efficient operation of the PV systems. There are two basic techniques of the prediction; black-box model based on statistics and information theory, and physical model with thermodynamics and hydrodynamics. In this paper, first, we propose a novel approach for next-day insolation forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model with publicly-available weather information obtained by the physical model. Generally, as investigated area becomes large, prediction accuracy is improved. It is called smoothing effect. Therefore, next, we investigate forecast of solar irradiance over wide area taking the account of smoothing effect, which is necessary in the future when photovoltaics will be introduced in large amount.