Strategic State Estimation in Uncertain and Mixed Multiagent Environments
Prashant Doshi, Adam S. Goodie, Dan Hall, Roi Ceren, Matthew Miesel · 2015
Abstract : Human judgment of uncertainty suffers from various cognitive biases. In the military context, operators of autonomous vehicles such as unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) may assess probabilities at levels that are not objectively justified. Some of the psychological issues that affect probability judgment include inaccuracy in verbally reporting probabilities and a lack of honesty in expressing the true probability assessments. The objectives of this project were to take bold and critical steps toward establishing field-valid probability assessment and update techniques using a realistically simulated UAV setting. Furthermore, the project studied and computationally modeled validated static probability assessments and probability updates. The research was performed by a multi-disciplinary team consisting of faculties in computer science, cognitive psychology and statistics. Five psychological studies investigated the presence of cognitive biases in judgment and techniques to obtain valid probability assessments in a laboratory setting.